Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 2.030490 2.691651 3.587218 4.919304 6.904370e+00 9.844849e+00 14.715119
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.426292 2.167330 3.364911 5.557151 9.757245e+00 1.816051e+01 38.529211
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.015430 1.719486 3.034734 5.923795 1.295426e+01 3.225770e+01 106.568223
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.817877 1.538214 3.094031 7.245976 2.058465e+01 7.598186e+01 521.960251
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.659435 1.359680 3.084408 8.639197 3.259199e+01 1.980541e+02 4822.922116
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.546107 1.225641 3.122151 10.512954 5.484674e+01 6.657986e+02 391251.354807
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.453009 1.095341 3.102836 12.504572 9.295982e+01 2.987293e+03 NaN
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.353817 0.900180 2.748612 12.664251 1.261808e+02 1.191379e+04 NaN
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.274745 0.726514 2.351412 12.073702 1.557316e+02 5.416489e+04 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.229644 0.636228 2.212975 13.064117 2.428269e+02 1.964839e+06 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.204290 0.598029 2.270372 16.022932 5.076543e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.187306 0.580860 2.424074 21.005323 1.384655e+03 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.164636 0.536055 2.429374 25.463407 3.889429e+03 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.137132 0.459048 2.182591 25.691596 7.302052e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.113471 0.387490 1.907931 24.506828 1.197196e+04 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.100989 0.357910 1.883055 28.726947 5.372242e+04 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.089842 0.328990 1.837300 32.982099 3.946388e+05 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.081218 0.307680 1.830366 39.388760 2.376774e+07 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.073379 0.286454 1.804085 46.119306 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.063458 0.250529 1.612373 44.106102 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.054413 0.215805 1.401223 39.418692 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.048950 0.197652 1.328999 41.860032 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.045928 0.191128 1.364121 52.563243 NaN NaN NaN